| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.3% | 60% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| logistic | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Johan Nikles | Miguel Damas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1534 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1534 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Vladyslav Orlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Miguel Damas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Johan Nikles | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Palomar, Xavi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Leonid Sheyngezikht | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Johan Nikles | 0 - 2 | Miguel Damas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.68 | 59.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |