| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.2% | 40% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 77% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.8% | 56% | -1.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 56% | -1.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.2% | 26.5% | 36.3% |
| xgboost | 39.4% | 26.4% | 34.2% |
| logistic | 40.8% | 28.6% | 30.6% |
| Mantova | Verona | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1484 | 1474 |
| Surface Elo | 1484 | 1474 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Modena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Modena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Padova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Carrarese | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Carrarese | 3 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Pisa | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 07 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 07 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 07 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 07 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 07 Nov 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |