| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.8% | 61% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.1% | 86% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.6% | 79% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 46% | +8.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.9% | 19.8% | 12.3% |
| xgboost | 50.4% | 26.2% | 23.5% |
| logistic | 49.4% | 28.0% | 22.6% |
| Sheffield Weds | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1439 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1439 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.88 | 0.78 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Salford | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Stockport | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Barnet | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Sheffield Weds | 2 - 1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 16 Oct 2021 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 2 | Sheffield Weds |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.80 | 20.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |