| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.4% | 43% | +9.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| logistic | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Corentin Moutet | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1735 | 1808 |
| Surface Elo | 1735 | 1808 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |