| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.6% | 47% | -3.0% | |
| DC | Home or away | 76.1% | 76% | +0.5% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.9% | 64% | -9.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 53% | +3.0% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.9% | 25.8% | 25.3% |
| xgboost | 36.8% | 22.6% | 40.6% |
| logistic | 32.7% | 29.0% | 38.3% |
| Burnley | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1561 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1561 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.80 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Lincoln | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Lincoln | 1 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Millwall | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Millwall | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Portsmouth | 0 - 0 | Burnley |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Burnley | 2 - 1 | Portsmouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.43 | 29.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.51 | 28.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |