| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.1% | 58% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.6% | 80% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.5% | 75% | -13.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 66% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.3% | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| xgboost | 38.6% | 22.9% | 38.5% |
| logistic | 38.1% | 26.9% | 35.0% |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1755 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1755 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 5 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Brentford | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Hull | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Brighton | 4 - 3 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Fulham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Liverpool | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Newcastle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Everton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Bournemouth | 0 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Bournemouth | 0 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 19 May 2024 | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | Bournemouth |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Bournemouth | 0 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 06 May 2023 | Bournemouth | 1 - 3 | Chelsea |
| 27 Dec 2022 | Chelsea | 2 - 0 | Bournemouth |
| 29 Feb 2020 | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | Chelsea |
| 14 Dec 2019 | Chelsea | 0 - 1 | Bournemouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.16 | 24.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |