| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.8% | 67% | -6.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.7% | 45.2% |
| logistic | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1506 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1506 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Bertimon, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Jacopo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Filippo Moroni | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Eric Vanshelboim | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Stepan Baum | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Simone Massucco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Daniele Rapagnetta | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Vlad Cristian Breazu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Branko Djuric | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.42 | 41.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 08 Nov 06:15 |