| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.1% | 58% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.5% | 83% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.9% | 77% | -2.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 60% | +4.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.5% | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| xgboost | 58.4% | 25.9% | 15.7% |
| logistic | 54.2% | 26.6% | 19.2% |
| Benevento | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1428 | 1411 |
| Surface Elo | 1428 | 1411 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 0.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 3.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Arezzo | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Arezzo | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Vicenza | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | SS Monopoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |