| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.9% | 44% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 47.8% | 52.1% |
| logistic | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Moez Echargui | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1601 | 1544 |
| Surface Elo | 1601 | 1544 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.44 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 1 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Oct | H | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Mickael Kaouk | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Borna Gojo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |