| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win selected | 80.4% | 73% | +7.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| logistic | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| Marvin Moeller | Federico Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1469 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1469 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Florian Broska | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Florian Broska | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Federico Arnaboldi | 0 - 2 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 23 Sep 06:15 |