| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.8% | 33% | +14.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 75% | +0.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.4% | 46% | +15.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 52% | +10.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.2% | 26.9% | 31.9% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 22.4% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 48.4% | 28.5% | 23.1% |
| Lincoln | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1645 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1645 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Watford | 4 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.38 | 42.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.55 | 28.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.06 | 32.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |