OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-07

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Wednesday 07 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Holger Rune 1.20 08:30 0.60 Daniel Altmaier

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	65.0%	68%	-3.5%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	65.8%	34.1%
logistic	69.0%	31.0%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Holger Rune	Daniel Altmaier
Elo (pre-match)	1907	1728
Surface Elo	1907	1728
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	0.60
Form trend	0.30	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	6	9
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Holger Rune: last 5

07 Oct	A	Daniel Altmaier	1 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Kyrian Jacquet	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Kyrian Jacquet	0 - 2	L
13 Oct	H	Ugo Humbert	1 - 2	L
13 Oct	H	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2 - 1	W

Daniel Altmaier: last 5

07 Oct	H	Holger Rune	2 - 1	W
28 Sep	A	Jie Cui	0 - 2	L
02 Sep	H	Zachary Svajda	1 - 3	L
27 Aug	H	Ignacio Buse	0 - 2	L
25 Aug	H	Francisco Comesana	2 - 0	W

Head to head

07 Oct 2026	Daniel Altmaier	2 - 1	Holger Rune
30 Oct 2023	Daniel Altmaier	0 - 2	Holger Rune
31 May 2021	Daniel Altmaier	1 - 2	Holger Rune

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.70	37.0%	07 Oct 06:00
1xBet	h2h	Holger Rune	1.49	67.1%	07 Oct 06:00
888sport	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
888sport	h2h	Holger Rune	1.44	69.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.90	34.5%	07 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Holger Rune	1.51	66.2%	07 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Daniel Altmaier	2.94	34.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Holger Rune	1.53	65.4%	07 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.86	35.0%	07 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.78	36.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.65	37.7%	07 Oct 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.47	68.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.90	34.5%	07 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Holger Rune	1.52	65.8%	07 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Daniel Altmaier	2.94	34.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Holger Rune	1.53	65.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.85	35.1%	07 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Holger Rune	1.48	67.6%	07 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.55	39.2%	07 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.42	70.4%	07 Oct 06:00
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.80	35.7%	07 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.46	68.5%	07 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.70	37.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Tipico	h2h	Holger Rune	1.40	71.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.55	39.2%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.39	71.9%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.65	37.7%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.47	68.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.65	37.7%	07 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.47	68.0%	07 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Holger Rune	1.44	69.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.80	35.7%	07 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.47	68.0%	07 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Daniel Altmaier	2.75	36.4%	07 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Holger Rune	1.45	69.0%	07 Oct 06:00

Generated 2026-10-30 23:30 UTC