| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.7% | 68% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.3% | 54.6% |
| logistic | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Kyrian Jacquet | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1845 | 1935 |
| Surface Elo | 1845 | 1935 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.58 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | Kyrian Jacquet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.47 | 68.0% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 22 Oct 06:15 |