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Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-09-30

🎾 tennis_atp_china_open · Wednesday 30 September 2026, 11:00 UTC · scheduled

Nuno Borges 1.80 11:00 1.20 Novak Djokovic

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	76.6%	71%	+5.7%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	13.1%	86.9%
logistic	33.2%	66.8%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Nuno Borges	Novak Djokovic
Elo (pre-match)	1866	2088
Surface Elo	1866	2088
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.20
Form trend	0.90	0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	30	31
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	1 W · 0 D

Nuno Borges: last 5

30 Sep	A	Novak Djokovic	0 - 2	L
31 Aug	A	Learner Tien	0 - 3	L
20 Aug	A	Brandon Nakashima	1 - 2	L
18 Aug	A	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	W
16 Aug	A	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 0	W

Novak Djokovic: last 5

30 Sep	H	Nuno Borges	2 - 0	W
30 Aug	A	Mariano Navone	2 - 3	L
16 Aug	H	Thiago Agustin Tirante	1 - 2	L
10 Jul	A	Jannik Sinner	0 - 3	L
07 Jul	A	Felix Auger Aliassime	3 - 2	W

Head to head

30 Sep 2026	Novak Djokovic	2 - 0	Nuno Borges
03 Nov 2025	Novak Djokovic	2 - 0	Nuno Borges

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.42	70.4%	30 Sep 06:00
1xBet	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.02	33.1%	30 Sep 06:00
888sport	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.40	71.4%	30 Sep 06:00
888sport	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.90	34.5%	30 Sep 06:00
BetAnything	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:00
BetAnything	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.00	33.3%	30 Sep 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.39	71.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.95	33.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.35	29.8%	30 Sep 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Novak Djokovic	1.43	69.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Nuno Borges	3.45	29.0%	30 Sep 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.40	71.4%	30 Sep 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.03	33.0%	30 Sep 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.40	71.4%	30 Sep 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.00	33.3%	30 Sep 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.45	69.0%	30 Sep 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.94	34.0%	30 Sep 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.42	70.4%	30 Sep 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.88	34.7%	30 Sep 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.39	71.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.97	33.7%	30 Sep 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.35	29.8%	30 Sep 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Novak Djokovic	1.43	69.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Nuno Borges	3.45	29.0%	30 Sep 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.39	71.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.95	33.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.14	31.9%	30 Sep 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.36	73.5%	30 Sep 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	30 Sep 06:00
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.05	32.8%	30 Sep 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.35	74.1%	30 Sep 06:00
Tipico	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.95	33.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.38	72.5%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.00	33.3%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.42	70.4%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.88	34.7%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.42	70.4%	30 Sep 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.88	34.7%	30 Sep 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.40	71.4%	30 Sep 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.90	34.5%	30 Sep 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.41	70.9%	30 Sep 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	3.05	32.8%	30 Sep 06:00

Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC