| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.5% | 86% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 85.7% | 14.2% |
| logistic | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| Nishesh Basavareddy | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1692 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1692 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Andres Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Hance, Keaton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Mees Rottgering | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Ozan Baris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | Nishesh Basavareddy |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | Nishesh Basavareddy |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | Nishesh Basavareddy |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.80 | 20.8% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.16 | 86.2% | 27 Sep 06:15 |