| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 54% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Nicolas Jarry | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1665 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 1665 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.63 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Apr | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 May 2023 | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 3 | Nicolas Jarry |
| 29 Nov 2021 | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | Nicolas Jarry |
| 22 Nov 2021 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 1 | Nicolas Jarry |
| 04 Oct 2021 | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | Nicolas Jarry |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |