| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.7% | 85% | -18.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| logistic | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| Alex Bolt | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1805 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1805 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Semen Pankin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Evan Zhu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Semen Pankin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Alexis Galarneau | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Alex Bolt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Andre Ilagan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Alex Bolt | 1 - 2 | Lloyd Harris |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.17 | 85.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.40 | 18.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |