| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.1% | 55% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.2% | 35.1% |
| xgboost | 56.3% | 41.8% |
| logistic | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Colorado Avalanche | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1611 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1611 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.78 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.10 | 3.44 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | New Jersey Devils | 3 - 4 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Dallas Stars | 2 - 3 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Dallas Stars | 3 - 2 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 6 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 3 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | W |
| 07 Jan 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 2 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 05 Nov 2025 | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 8 - 2 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Colorado Avalanche | 2 - 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 23 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 23 Oct 19:20 |