| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.7% | 56% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 50.2% | 49.7% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Alex Barrena | Facundo Mena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1652 | 1670 |
| Surface Elo | 1652 | 1670 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Garay, Valentin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Renzo Olivo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Facundo Mena |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.80 | 55.6% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |