| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 43% | +10.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.5% | 69% | +11.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.1% | 57% | +15.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 69% | -10.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.3% | 26.2% | 25.4% |
| xgboost | 53.5% | 26.5% | 19.9% |
| logistic | 60.7% | 23.1% | 16.3% |
| NAC Breda | Heracles | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1436 | 1346 |
| Surface Elo | 1436 | 1346 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.60 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 159 | 159 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Helmond Sport | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | MVV Maastricht | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Vitesse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 4 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Graafschap | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | MVV Maastricht | 5 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Waalwijk | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Helmond Sport | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Vitesse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Groningen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Heracles | 0 - 1 | NAC Breda |
| 20 Sep 2025 | NAC Breda | 2 - 1 | Heracles |
| 31 Jan 2025 | NAC Breda | 1 - 1 | Heracles |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Heracles | 2 - 0 | NAC Breda |
| 06 Apr 2019 | Heracles | 1 - 0 | NAC Breda |
| 03 Nov 2018 | NAC Breda | 2 - 1 | Heracles |
| 07 Feb 2018 | NAC Breda | 6 - 1 | Heracles |
| 25 Nov 2017 | Heracles | 2 - 1 | NAC Breda |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |