| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.5% | 81% | -15.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| logistic | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Felipe Meligeni Alves | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1660 | 1575 |
| Surface Elo | 1660 | 1575 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Sebastian Gomez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |