| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 45% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.2% | 73% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.0% | 62% | +6.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 54% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.4% | 27.4% | 23.2% |
| xgboost | 47.2% | 25.4% | 27.4% |
| logistic | 52.3% | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| Sutton | Truro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1392 | 1323 |
| Surface Elo | 1392 | 1323 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 175 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Braintree Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Farnham Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Maidstone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Merthyr Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Merthyr Town | 1 - 1 | D |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Sutton | 0 - 3 | Truro |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Truro | 2 - 3 | Sutton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |