| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 81.2% | 85% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 85.3% | 14.6% |
| logistic | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2262 | 1921 |
| Surface Elo | 2262 | 1921 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 23 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 3 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Yibing Wu | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Jaime Faria | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 3 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Daniel Merida | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Brandon Nakashima | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 1 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.18 | 84.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |