OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:25 UTC · finished

Arizona Cardinals – 21 - 45 – Detroit Lions

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	62.9%	71%	-8.0%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	37.1%	62.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Arizona Cardinals	Detroit Lions
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.32
form diff	-0.25
rest diff	0.04
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.60
opponent strength diff	0.03
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T20:25:00+00:00

Arizona Cardinals: last 5

04 Oct	A	New York Giants	24 - 36	L
27 Sep	A	San Francisco 49ers	30 - 36	L
20 Sep	H	Seattle Seahawks	7 - 31	L
13 Sep	A	Los Angeles Chargers	26 - 14	W
04 Jan	A	Los Angeles Rams	20 - 37	L

Detroit Lions: last 5

05 Oct	A	Carolina Panthers	26 - 32	L
27 Sep	H	New York Jets	31 - 24	W
18 Sep	A	Buffalo Bills	31 - 41	L
13 Sep	H	New Orleans Saints	31 - 30	W
04 Jan	A	Chicago Bears	19 - 16	W

Head to head

22 Sep 2024	Arizona Cardinals	13 - 20	Detroit Lions
19 Dec 2021	Detroit Lions	30 - 12	Arizona Cardinals
27 Sep 2020	Arizona Cardinals	23 - 26	Detroit Lions
08 Sep 2019	Arizona Cardinals	27 - 27	Detroit Lions
09 Dec 2018	Arizona Cardinals	3 - 17	Detroit Lions
10 Sep 2017	Detroit Lions	35 - 23	Arizona Cardinals
11 Oct 2015	Detroit Lions	17 - 42	Arizona Cardinals
16 Nov 2014	Arizona Cardinals	14 - 6	Detroit Lions
15 Sep 2013	Arizona Cardinals	25 - 21	Detroit Lions
16 Dec 2012	Arizona Cardinals	38 - 10	Detroit Lions

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	3.06	32.7%	11 Oct 18:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.41	70.9%	11 Oct 18:20

Generated 2026-10-30 18:16 UTC