| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.0% | 61% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.7% | 86% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 70.7% | 79% | -8.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 66% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.5% | 23.8% | 50.7% |
| xgboost | 21.8% | 20.9% | 57.3% |
| logistic | 17.3% | 25.5% | 57.2% |
| Newport County | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1369 | 1589 |
| Surface Elo | 1369 | 1589 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gillingham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Swindon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Burton | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Burton | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 5 - 1 | W |
| 01 Feb 2020 | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | Newport County |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Newport County | 1 - 0 | Plymouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.50 | 22.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |