| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.3% | 70% | -13.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.2% | 89% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.6% | 86% | -12.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 35% | +20.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.0% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| xgboost | 55.9% | 27.3% | 16.8% |
| logistic | 58.8% | 24.6% | 16.6% |
| Stockport | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 14 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Leeds | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Shrewsbury | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterborough United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 4 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Leeds | 3 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Plymouth | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 May 2026 | Barnsley | 1 - 3 | Stockport |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Stockport | 1 - 1 | Barnsley |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Stockport | 2 - 1 | Barnsley |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | Stockport |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.10 | 19.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |