| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 40% | +13.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.0% | 48.9% |
| logistic | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Jessika Ponchet | Leonard, M | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.42 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Elena Ruxandra Bertea | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Leonard, M | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Aikawa, M | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Hollie Smart | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Sada Nahimana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Djoubri, S | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Alicia Dudeney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Jessika Ponchet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Jodie Burrage | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Leonard, M | 2 - 1 | Jessika Ponchet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |