| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.1% | 80% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| logistic | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Miguel Tobon | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1416 | 1393 |
| Surface Elo | 1416 | 1393 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Juan Bautista Torres | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Anders Matta | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tomas Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | Thiago Cigarran |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |