OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Indianapolis Colts – 19 - 17 – Houston Texans

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	57.0%	56%	+1.5%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	42.9%	57.1%

Inputs the models saw

	Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.18
form diff	-0.62
rest diff	-0.04
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.95
opponent strength diff	0.10
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Indianapolis Colts: last 5

21 Sep	A	Kansas City Chiefs	30 - 33	L
13 Sep	H	Baltimore Ravens	23 - 41	L
04 Jan	A	Houston Texans	30 - 38	L
28 Dec	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	17 - 23	L
23 Dec	H	San Francisco 49ers	27 - 48	L

Houston Texans: last 5

20 Sep	H	Cincinnati Bengals	6 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Buffalo Bills	31 - 36	L
18 Jan	A	New England Patriots	16 - 28	L
13 Jan	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	30 - 6	W
04 Jan	H	Indianapolis Colts	38 - 30	W

Head to head

04 Jan 2026	Houston Texans	38 - 30	Indianapolis Colts
30 Nov 2025	Indianapolis Colts	16 - 20	Houston Texans
27 Oct 2024	Houston Texans	23 - 20	Indianapolis Colts
08 Sep 2024	Indianapolis Colts	27 - 29	Houston Texans
07 Jan 2024	Indianapolis Colts	19 - 23	Houston Texans
17 Sep 2023	Houston Texans	20 - 31	Indianapolis Colts
08 Jan 2023	Indianapolis Colts	31 - 32	Houston Texans
11 Sep 2022	Houston Texans	20 - 20	Indianapolis Colts
05 Dec 2021	Houston Texans	0 - 31	Indianapolis Colts
17 Oct 2021	Indianapolis Colts	31 - 3	Houston Texans

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.08	48.1%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.84	54.3%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 20:33 UTC