OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Troyes 0.80 0 - 2 0.60 Marseille
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 51.8%51%+0.4%✓ hit
DCHome or away 78.8%78%+0.8%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 66.5%69%-2.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.5%64%-6.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson17.3%20.2%62.6%
xgboost32.2%19.6%48.2%
logistic32.0%27.8%40.2%
Inputs the models saw
TroyesMarseille
Elo (pre-match)15521676
Surface Elo15521676
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.800.60
Form trend0.500.60
Season points per game0.800.60
Season goals for / game0.801.40
Season goals against / game2.201.60
Rest days2221
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W5 W · 1 D
Troyes: last 5
19 SepAAngers0 - 2L
13 SepALille0 - 2L
06 SepHStrasbourg2 - 6L
29 AugALorient2 - 1W
22 AugHParis FC0 - 0D
Marseille: last 5
20 SepHParis Saint Germain1 - 2L
11 SepARennes0 - 1L
06 SepHParis FC2 - 3L
30 AugAMonaco0 - 2L
21 AugHStrasbourg4 - 0W
Head to head
16 Apr 2023Marseille3 - 1Troyes
11 Jan 2023Troyes0 - 2Marseille
27 Feb 2022Troyes1 - 1Marseille
28 Nov 2021Marseille1 - 0Troyes
15 Apr 2018Troyes2 - 3Marseille
20 Dec 2017Marseille3 - 1Troyes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.0050.0%11 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%11 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2home3.6027.8%11 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8055.6%11 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0050.0%11 Oct 19:45
SportyBet1X2away1.9950.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9725.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.7526.7%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5863.3%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC