| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.8% | 31% | +16.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 84% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.5% | 40% | +21.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 74% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 19.3% | 22.9% | 57.8% |
| xgboost | 42.8% | 29.7% | 27.4% |
| logistic | 28.9% | 28.0% | 43.1% |
| Edinburgh City | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1342 | 1574 |
| Surface Elo | 1342 | 1574 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Spartans | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Spartans | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Stranraer | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Stranraer | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Dundee United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Heart of Midlothian FC | 0 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Hearts | 0 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Cumbernauld Colts FC | 4 - 2 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Clydebank FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Dundee United | 0 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |