| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.7% | 47% | +4.2% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.2% | 77% | +1.9% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.3% | 65% | +4.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 60% | +0.2% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 58.0% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.8% | 28.8% | 26.3% |
| xgboost | 48.2% | 30.8% | 21.1% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 26.4% | 18.7% |
| Accrington | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1424 | 1320 |
| Surface Elo | 1424 | 1320 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.86 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Rochdale | 5 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Rochdale | 5 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Colchester | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Colchester | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Feb 2021 | Accrington | 0 - 0 | Northampton |
| 14 Nov 2020 | Northampton | 0 - 1 | Accrington |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |