| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.7% | 88% | -24.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.6% | 31.3% |
| logistic | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| Vilius Gaubas | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1596 | 1433 |
| Surface Elo | 1596 | 1433 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 28 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Pavel Lagutin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Michael Geerts | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Robin Bertrand | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 May | A | Eero Vasa | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Joao Domingues | 0 - 2 | Vilius Gaubas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |