| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.8% | 82% | -21.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.7% | 62.2% |
| logistic | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| Gustavo Heide | Hernan Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1753 | 1522 |
| Surface Elo | 1753 | 1522 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Nicolas Mejia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Hernan Casanova |
| 22 Nov 2021 | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | Hernan Casanova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.95 | 20.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |