| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.0% | 47% | +3.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.2% | 77% | +0.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.2% | 64% | +2.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 58% | +3.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.6% | 24.0% | 29.4% |
| xgboost | 48.5% | 23.9% | 27.7% |
| logistic | 53.7% | 25.3% | 20.9% |
| Auxerre | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1561 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1561 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.43 | 2.14 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Le Havre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Le Havre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Rennes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Rennes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Brest | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Le Mans | 0 - 1 | Auxerre |
| 02 Aug 2019 | Auxerre | 2 - 0 | Le Mans |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 25 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 25 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 25 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 25 Oct 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 25 Oct 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.53 | 28.3% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.13 | 46.9% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 25 Oct 06:15 |