OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC · finished
Lorient 1.40 1 - 0 2.20 Monaco
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 46.1%48%-1.6%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.7%75%+0.4%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 58.7%66%-7.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.7%53%+3.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 50.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson31.2%24.9%43.9%
xgboost29.8%25.7%44.5%
logistic32.5%29.3%38.2%
Inputs the models saw
LorientMonaco
Elo (pre-match)16471773
Surface Elo16471773
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.20
Form trend-0.300.40
Season points per game1.332.33
Season goals for / game1.001.67
Season goals against / game1.000.83
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 5 D
Lorient: last 5
10 OctHParis FC1 - 0W
10 OctHParis FC1 - 0W
19 SepALe Mans1 - 2L
12 SepHToulouse2 - 2D
05 SepALens1 - 0W
Monaco: last 5
15 OctAPFC CSKA Sofia2 - 1W
10 OctHToulouse2 - 2D
10 OctHToulouse2 - 2D
03 OctHPisa2 - 0W
18 SepHLens2 - 1W
Head to head
16 Jan 2026Monaco1 - 3Lorient
27 Sep 2025Lorient3 - 1Monaco
17 Mar 2024Monaco2 - 2Lorient
17 Sep 2023Lorient2 - 2Monaco
16 Apr 2023Monaco3 - 1Lorient
11 Jan 2023Lorient2 - 2Monaco
13 Feb 2022Monaco0 - 0Lorient
13 Aug 2021Lorient1 - 0Monaco
14 Feb 2021Monaco2 - 2Lorient
06 Jan 2021Lorient2 - 5Monaco
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.0050.0%18 Oct 16:15
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%18 Oct 16:15
Bet3651X2home3.6027.8%18 Oct 16:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8853.2%18 Oct 16:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9850.5%18 Oct 16:15
SportyBet1X2away2.1446.7%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5628.1%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.6827.2%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9750.8%18 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8753.5%18 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC