| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 40.2% | 42% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 72.4% | 78% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.6% | 56% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.6% | 70% | +13.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 70.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.2% | 27.6% | 32.2% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Werder Bremen | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1640 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1640 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 5 W · 2 D |
| 12 Sep | A | FC Koln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | RB Leipzig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Freiburg | 1 - 4 | L |
| 16 May | H | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 May | A | Hoffenheim | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Schalke 04 | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 4 | L |
| 09 May | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 - 1 | W |
| 02 May 2026 | Werder Bremen | 1 - 3 | Augsburg |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Augsburg | 0 - 0 | Werder Bremen |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Werder Bremen | 0 - 2 | Augsburg |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | Werder Bremen |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Augsburg | 0 - 3 | Werder Bremen |
| 09 Dec 2023 | Werder Bremen | 2 - 0 | Augsburg |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Augsburg | 2 - 1 | Werder Bremen |
| 09 Sep 2022 | Werder Bremen | 0 - 1 | Augsburg |
| 15 May 2021 | Augsburg | 2 - 0 | Werder Bremen |
| 16 Jan 2021 | Werder Bremen | 2 - 0 | Augsburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 19 Sep 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.95 | 25.3% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.37 | 42.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |