| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.4% | 52% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.3% | 77% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.8% | 69% | +0.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 64% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 23.2% | 25.2% | 51.6% |
| xgboost | 22.0% | 18.7% | 59.4% |
| logistic | 25.5% | 25.5% | 49.0% |
| Troyes | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1539 | 1736 |
| Surface Elo | 1539 | 1736 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Marseille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Marseille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Angers | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Lille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 6 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Lyon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Lyon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Monaco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Le Mans | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Troyes | 1 - 1 | Lens |
| 09 Sep 2022 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Troyes |
| 14 May 2022 | Troyes | 1 - 3 | Lens |
| 05 Nov 2021 | Lens | 4 - 0 | Troyes |
| 04 Feb 2020 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Troyes |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Troyes | 2 - 0 | Lens |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Troyes | 1 - 0 | Lens |
| 18 Aug 2018 | Lens | 2 - 0 | Troyes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.91 | 52.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.06 | 24.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.99 | 25.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |