| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 73.9% | 75% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 26.1% | 73.8% |
| logistic | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| Alastair Gray | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1699 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1699 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.21 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | A | Aidan Mayo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Aidan Mayo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Valentin Royer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Lui Maxted | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.33 | 75.2% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.15 | 31.8% | 10 Nov 06:15 |