OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Belgian Pro League · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC · finished
Mechelen 0.40 4 - 3 1.20 St Truiden
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 48.3%49%-0.4%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.8%80%-3.2%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 61.4%66%-4.8%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.4%60%-4.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson36.4%26.0%37.6%
xgboost33.8%21.2%45.1%
logistic23.6%27.9%48.5%
Inputs the models saw
MechelenSt Truiden
Elo (pre-match)14851589
Surface Elo14851589
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.401.20
Form trend-0.100.60
Season points per game0.431.14
Season goals for / game0.711.71
Season goals against / game2.001.71
Rest days2121
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W9 W · 1 D
Mechelen: last 5
19 SepALommel SK0 - 0D
11 SepHAnderlecht0 - 1L
05 SepHWesterlo0 - 4L
29 AugARAAL La Louviere2 - 2D
22 AugACharleroi0 - 2L
St Truiden: last 5
20 SepHWesterlo0 - 2L
12 SepAWaasland-Beveren0 - 2L
05 SepHRAAL La Louviere4 - 0W
02 SepHSt. Gilloise0 - 3L
30 AugAAntwerp4 - 1W
Head to head
24 May 2026St Truiden3 - 0Mechelen
26 Apr 2026Mechelen1 - 4St Truiden
21 Dec 2025St Truiden1 - 0Mechelen
04 Oct 2025Mechelen1 - 3St Truiden
21 Feb 2025Mechelen1 - 1St Truiden
08 Nov 2024St Truiden2 - 1Mechelen
12 May 2024St Truiden2 - 1Mechelen
05 Apr 2024Mechelen2 - 3St Truiden
03 Dec 2023Mechelen0 - 2St Truiden
17 Sep 2023St Truiden2 - 0Mechelen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.2544.4%11 Oct 18:15
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%11 Oct 18:15
Bet3651X2home2.8834.7%11 Oct 18:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6759.9%11 Oct 18:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1546.5%11 Oct 18:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:19 UTC