| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 76.8% | 82% | -5.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 87.9% | 12.1% |
| logistic | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| Coco Gauff | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1996 | 1715 |
| Surface Elo | 1996 | 1715 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Sun, Xinran | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Camila Osorio | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Xinran Sun | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Camila Osorio | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Katie Volynets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Coco Gauff | 0 - 2 | Elise Mertens |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Coco Gauff | 2 - 1 | Elise Mertens |
| 06 Mar 2024 | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | Elise Mertens |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Coco Gauff | 2 - 1 | Elise Mertens |
| 23 May 2022 | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | Elise Mertens |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Coco Gauff | 2 - 1 | Elise Mertens |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.15 | 24.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |