| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.4% | 54% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.3% | 78% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.2% | 71% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 45% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.4% | 21.7% | 24.9% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Celta | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1614 | 1600 |
| Surface Elo | 1614 | 1600 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Rest days | 6 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Getafe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Sep | A | Sociedad | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Athletic Club | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Aug | H | Osasuna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Barcelona | 2 - 7 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Vallecano | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Getafe | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.33 | 23.1% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.23 | 23.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.89 | 25.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |