| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.2% | 62% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.9% | 54.3% |
| xgboost | 47.5% | 51.4% |
| logistic | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Colorado Avalanche | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1402 | 1542 |
| Surface Elo | 1402 | 1542 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.37 | 4.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.37 | 3.11 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Nov | H | New Jersey Devils | 0 - 4 | L |
| 08 Nov | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 4 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 5 | L |
| 08 Nov | H | Detroit Red Wings | 4 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Nashville Predators | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 - 7 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Chicago Blackhawks | 5 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Calgary Flames | 5 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 4 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 19 Mar 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 1 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Colorado Avalanche | 7 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Nov 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 10 Nov 21:20 |