| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.0% | no line |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 29.3% | 70.6% |
| logistic | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2015 | 2279 |
| Surface Elo | 2015 | 2279 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.10 | 2.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | H | Luciano Darderi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 26 May 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Tommy Paul |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Tommy Paul |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 08 Aug 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||