| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.7% | 68% | +3.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.3% | 36.6% |
| logistic | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Carlos Maria Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1539 | 1394 |
| Surface Elo | 1539 | 1394 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 1 | Gonzalo Villanueva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |