| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.7% | 72% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.2% | 25.7% |
| logistic | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Luca Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1772 | 1617 |
| Surface Elo | 1772 | 1617 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | George Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Luca Nardi |
| 08 Jun 2026 | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 1 | Luca Nardi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |