| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.8% | 48% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.0% | 76% | +1.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.5% | 65% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 61% | +13.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 71.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.3% | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| xgboost | 50.2% | 23.7% | 26.1% |
| logistic | 41.7% | 27.9% | 30.4% |
| Osasuna | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | UE Olot | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Betis | 2 - 5 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Betis | 2 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | CE Manresa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | CF Calamocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Celta | 0 - 5 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Barcelona | 2 - 7 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.58 | 27.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.72 | 26.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.08 | 48.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |