| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.5% | 92% | -19.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.6% | 19.3% |
| logistic | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Lucio Ratti | Federico Zeballos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1453 | 1305 |
| Surface Elo | 1453 | 1305 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Federico Coria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Coria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Jun | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Tomas Farjat | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.70 | 14.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.09 | 91.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |