| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.2% | 69% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 55.3% | 44.6% |
| logistic | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| Clara Tauson | Polina Kudermetova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1579 | 1433 |
| Surface Elo | 1579 | 1433 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 33 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Polina Kudermetova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Sloane Stephens | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Diane Parry | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Clara Tauson | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Yexin Ma | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Clara Tauson | 1 - 2 | Polina Kudermetova |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Clara Tauson | 2 - 1 | Polina Kudermetova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |