| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.3% | 33% | +11.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.0% | 78% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.4% | 45% | +12.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 53% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.9% | 26.8% | 29.4% |
| xgboost | 34.8% | 33.3% | 31.9% |
| logistic | 32.0% | 18.4% | 49.6% |
| Pro Vercelli | Carpi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1349 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1349 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 3060 | 2702 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | AS Giana Erminio | 1 - 1 | D |
| 21 Sep | A | AC Trento | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 May | A | Cittadella | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 May | H | Ternana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 May | A | Spezia | 1 - 5 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | FC Arzignano Valchiampo | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Novara | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 May | H | Venezia | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 May | A | Livorno | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 May | H | Cremonese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Mar 2018 | Carpi | 2 - 0 | Pro Vercelli |
| 21 Oct 2017 | Pro Vercelli | 0 - 0 | Carpi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |